India today stands united against Pakistan on the Uri attack and wants to know as to what will be our “befitting reply” to Pakistan.
Amidst the rhetoric and chest thumping we need to weigh our options with a level head so that the gains that we make do no outweigh the losses that we may incur in our quest to seek revenge.
Just to put basics facts into perspective, so that before we evaluate the options we can better understand the implications:
- Operation Vijay (Kargil Conflict) May 1999: We lost 550 bravehearts and reclaimed our own territory at the cost of $2 billion.
The operation in no way annulled or abated militancy or even dampened the spirits of Pakistan to wage a proxy war against India.
- Operation Parakram December 2001: OP Parakram was launched after five terrorists entered Parliament and killed five policemen, a security guard and a gardener.
The
cost incurred by India for deployment and withdrawal of troops was Rs
65 billion while it cost Pakistan, $1.4 billion. After a faceoff troops
were sent back to barracks.
- Mumbai Terrorist Attack 26 November 2008 (26/11): Ten Pakistani terrorists had targeted Mumbai and killed 165 people. India ordered operational deployment and Pakistan followed suit.
The
cost of sustaining the 10 month standoff without the cost of
mobilisation of troops from their barracks to the operational area and
back was 7 crore a day (a total of 21 crores).
Final
cost of the complete operation was estimated at Rs 7000 – 8000
crores. The troops returned back to their barracks after a ten month
long deployment.
Options of Response Available with India
There are multiple options that India can consider to employ. However, while mulling over these options do keep in mind that 44% of Indian population is sustaining itself at less than one dollar a day.
Option I: Conduct Surgical Operations (e.g. Myanmar OP)
Contrary to Myanmar, out here, Pakistan establishment is a part of the larger problem and hence, cannot be taken onboard.
A surgical operation would entail inserting multiple small teams of Special Forces across the LC to inflict casualties and destroy militant camps.
The designated targets will be first required to be neutralised by heavy pounding from air and artillery fire. (Please understand that though it is a stealth operation, it will still need to be provided covering fire).
Furthermore, the identified militant camps across the LC are in the shadow of Pakistan regular army deployment and are only used as staging areas for induction into India.
In the absence of a preponderance of artillery covering fire and favourable air support, execution of such a mission and extrication of our forces will be near impossible.
We cannot afford to lose our best men on suicidal missions. “They are not being trained to die for their nation, but to ensure that the opponent dies for his nation”.
Option II: Precision Guided Missile Attacks on Jihadists’ Camps
This option will be perhaps the most attractive for our political leadership as a face saving gesture, as also its execution will remain within the conflict escalation matrix.
At present, India has an enhanced capability and an array of sophisticated precision guided weapons that can be used against identified jihadist camps.
However, the flip side of this option is that, even Pakistan will hit back and will get a licence to target Indian industrial infrastructure. However, India can then cautiously step up its retaliation without breaching Pakistan’s nuclear threshold.
The cost of this option will be colossal and the resultant dividends will have to be judiciously evaluated (in August 1998, the US fired missiles into Afghanistan, seeking to avenge bombings which killed 224 people. In all, 75 missiles, each priced at $1.5 million, killed six minor jihadists).
Option III: Airstrikes by IAF and Helicopter Gunship Raids by Special Forces:
This option can only be executed if we have the precise locations of intended targets.
The execution of such an operation would entail obtaining specific locations of LeT training camps and its headquarters in PoK.
The IAF combat jets would initially carry out surgical strikes against LeT targets to adequately soften them up and concurrently, helicopter-borne Special Forces could strike these camps to ensure that there is no collateral damage.
This option again would be well within the limits of the conflict escalation matrix and may be a preferred option.
However, the government and the armed forces will have to be fully prepared for a full scale war at short notice if the operation goes out of hand and extensive collateral damage takes place.
Secondly, the nation will also have to be prepared for the huge cost that will come with this option (a total of 350 air-sorties for an accumulated expenditure of $416 million was incurred during the Kargil conflict).
Option IV: Localised and Limited Conflict in J&K
A Kargil type operation localised to the Uri sector in J&K, backed up by full mobilisation of the army may be considered as an option.
However, unlike the Kargil operation, in this case the designated targets will be well inside POK and there is bound to be collateral damage, which will escalate the conflict to a conventional war.
Option V: Economic and Diplomatic Isolation of Pakistan
Besides the military options, this option must be put into effect immediately and simultaneously. The benefits of this non-violent strategy may be less direct than the military actions, but it comes with far lower risks of an escalating military conflict.
India has the ability to use its emerging economy clout to generate support and isolate Pakistan economically, which, in the long run will be most damaging for Pakistan. We must aim to strike at the ‘Will’ of Pakistan to permanently subdue it.
Russia has called off its joint military exercise with Pakistan yesterday in the wake of the Uri incident. Bangladesh and Afghanistan have already extended their close support to India in tackling terrorism. Many developed countries, including USA and European nations have used harsh words to condemn terrorism.
India must use this challenging time as an opportunity to isolate Pakistan internationally and convince the world community to exert diplomatic pressure and impose economic sanctions on Pakistan.
Option IV: Do Unto Pakistan, What Pakistan is Doing Unto India
This is the best long term option with India. Unfortunately, when Pakistan formulated a state policy of waging a low cost-high dividend proxy war against us 30 years back, India was simply reactive in its response.
The time is now ripe for India to cash on the unprecedented atrocities being committed on the people of Balochistan, POK and Gilgit-Baltistan by Pakistan security forces. The secession of these areas from Pakistan will leave that country with half the landmass and a quarter of the existing resources.
The ‘die has already been cast’ yesterday, with the most prominent Baloch leader Brahumdagh Bugti initiating the move to seek political asylum in India.
Mr. Bugti is the grandson of Nawab Akbar Bugti, the patriarch and head of the Bugtis, which is the largest tribe of Balochistan. Akbar Bugti was killed in a police action by the Pakistani state on August 26, 2006, during the presidency of Pervez Musharraf.
Funding, equipping and training the rebels will provide India with an extended arm deep into Pakistan. Reply to Uri like attacks could then be heard deep in the heartland of Pakistan, where it will hurt Pakistan the most.
Conclusion
The reason for such attacks, as it happened in Uri, is that till date India does not have a ‘Pakistan Policy’. The responses of our political masters has been all along knee jerk and this flip-flop has caused us lives, that were not supposed to be lost......at least not like this.
It is high time that our political leadership becomes alive to the necessity of formulising a definitive policy to deal with this issue which, in all likelihood is going to simmer till eternity.
Written By:Col. DJS Chahal
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